A New Zealand Paradigm

I am yet to post on this as I have been reading everyone else opinions so I am going to post quite a long post, with every possible combination no matter how likely, and we will see I will post them and then look into an order I think is most likely.

Seats first (as they stand before Specials)

Labour 50
National 49
NZ First 7
Greens 6
Maori 4
United 3
ACT 2
Jim 1 (From now on part of LABP)

So we have definite coalitons of:

LABP 51
NAT/ACT 51 (Now known ast NACT)

Way too close to call at this point, UF and NZF could go either way

LABP/GRE 57 (Still short, but as a problem UF or NZF wouldn't go with the greens)
therefore the only chance would be this
LABP/GRE/MAO which is still only 61/122 and this is not enough as they cannot pass a budget with this.

How bout NZF and UF joining either side

LABP/UF/NZF 61
NACT/UF/NZF 61

Neither of these can govern either, so how bout the possibility of Maori joining either

LABP/UF/NZF/Maori 65
NACT/UF/NZF/Maori 65

or the same without UF

LABP/NZF/Maori 62
NACT/NZF/Maori 62

But this would be a bloody hard combination to keep together.
My only real comment on all of this would be that I think Labour is going to give the Greens the big FU......unless....

LABP/Greens/Maori/UF 64, this combination could govern, but hard to work with 5 parties involved.

So there we go those are the real combinations as UF and NZF won't work with the greens, but there is a possibility they could to be in power I think this is them in order. I don't think we can get a Centre right government unless another seat comes over or the Maori Party gain one and Labour loses one.

So the List

LABP/Maori/NZF 62
LABP/Maori/UF 58 with NZF or Greens on Conf and Supply
LABP/UF/NZF 61 with Greens and Maori Conf and Supply
LABP/UF/MAO/GRE 64
NACT/NZF/UF 61 with Maori keeping Status quo on Maori issues
LABP/NZF/UF/MAO 65 but why bother with UF
LABP/Maori 55 with 3 parties on Conf and Supply

I think these combinations are the only ones that could even work, so I am going to quickly put a poll together and put it up on here as soon as I can.
I think the last option is quite likely, but it is lower as I believe they would prefer to have a clear majority and not have to work with 3 parties for conf and supply.