Monday, July 11, 2005
Winston & The Letter
Both Aaron and Jordan have reprinted pieces of Prebs' letter today. Both seem intent on interpreting what Prebs said as bad news for the centre right. In fact, Aaron has been ramping up the chances of Winston rather a lot lately.
He quoted parts of the Letter on his blog today to do with strategic voting. He seemed to omit this bit from the Letter so I'll reproduce it just in case he overlooked it:
NOT THREE TIMES
Peters has been a minister twice. Both times it has almost destroyed him. As Minister of Maori Affairs his personal popularity went into free fall. He blamed the “dry” policies of Finance Minister Ruth Richardson. He determined next time to be Finance Minister. He was and his popularity fell again. He survived by just 34 votes in 1999. (We are still looking for them). Commentators have speculated Peters will do a United Party and refuse to join the government. Being outside government has not saved United and Dunne has now said he wants to be in the cabinet. Peters himself is all about power, perks and prestige; he hates the backbenches and longs for ministerial power and prestige.
REMEMBER
It is not just the public but also the commentators’ memories that are short. On election night in 1996 everyone including Clark thought it was going to be a Labour/NZ First government. Peters said it was because the Alliance would not give an assurance of support, (Alliance’s vote was needed for a majority) - he went with National.
BIG GOVERNMENT
Peters believes in big government, big spending and big taxes. His first action after becoming Treasurer was to cancel the “Birch tax cuts”. He opposed Ruth Richardson not just ideologically but pragmatically. Peters believes, (and there is evidence to support him), that NZ’ers like government doing things for them. As Treasurer Peters began a massive $5 billion spend up. He still believes but for the Asian crisis and Shipley firing him, he would have spent his way to victory. His first preference is a coalition with Labour, on his terms. Clark and Cullen were willing in 1996, what’s changed? Whenever Peters wants to silence Cullen he threatens to publish the coalition agreement Labour signed with him.
My fisk on this is that a vote for Winston Last is nothing short of madness.
He quoted parts of the Letter on his blog today to do with strategic voting. He seemed to omit this bit from the Letter so I'll reproduce it just in case he overlooked it:
NOT THREE TIMES
Peters has been a minister twice. Both times it has almost destroyed him. As Minister of Maori Affairs his personal popularity went into free fall. He blamed the “dry” policies of Finance Minister Ruth Richardson. He determined next time to be Finance Minister. He was and his popularity fell again. He survived by just 34 votes in 1999. (We are still looking for them). Commentators have speculated Peters will do a United Party and refuse to join the government. Being outside government has not saved United and Dunne has now said he wants to be in the cabinet. Peters himself is all about power, perks and prestige; he hates the backbenches and longs for ministerial power and prestige.
REMEMBER
It is not just the public but also the commentators’ memories that are short. On election night in 1996 everyone including Clark thought it was going to be a Labour/NZ First government. Peters said it was because the Alliance would not give an assurance of support, (Alliance’s vote was needed for a majority) - he went with National.
BIG GOVERNMENT
Peters believes in big government, big spending and big taxes. His first action after becoming Treasurer was to cancel the “Birch tax cuts”. He opposed Ruth Richardson not just ideologically but pragmatically. Peters believes, (and there is evidence to support him), that NZ’ers like government doing things for them. As Treasurer Peters began a massive $5 billion spend up. He still believes but for the Asian crisis and Shipley firing him, he would have spent his way to victory. His first preference is a coalition with Labour, on his terms. Clark and Cullen were willing in 1996, what’s changed? Whenever Peters wants to silence Cullen he threatens to publish the coalition agreement Labour signed with him.
My fisk on this is that a vote for Winston Last is nothing short of madness.
Comments:
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Can't fisk everything you know. But I have covered in previous blogposts the reasons why I think a possible National/NZ First govt (if thats what happens after election day) would be better than the Nat/NZF govt of 96-98/99.
As for wanting ministerial power, well that's part of the business of politics - seeking power. Think of it this way, what a total waste of time it would have been for ACT to fail to get back into Parliament this coming election, and for it to have never been in power to effect ACT policy.
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As for wanting ministerial power, well that's part of the business of politics - seeking power. Think of it this way, what a total waste of time it would have been for ACT to fail to get back into Parliament this coming election, and for it to have never been in power to effect ACT policy.
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